The New Palm in Fall 2005

June 24, 2005

Now that palmOne’s Spring 2005 models – the TungstenE2 and LifeDrive – have hit the market, rumors are again beginning to swirl around the plans palmOne (soon to be just plain old Palm, Inc. again) has for its handheld lineup in the second half of 2005. Past patterns indicate that it will announce at least two new handhelds sometime around October. In 2004 it was the TungstenT5 and the Treo 650. In 2003 it was the TungstenE and TungstenT3. So what will the new Palm do for this autumn season?

Let’s get to the latest rumors first. Two rumors have popped up in just the past two days. First, there was a rumor out yesterday about Palm planning an update to the LifeDrive with a 6GB hard drive rather than the current 4GB one (see http://www.brighthand.com/article/palmOne_Planning_6_GB_LifeDrive ). However, I believe, as at least one online forum poster noted, that Hitachi’s press release reference to “plans” by Palm for using Hitachi’s new 6GB Microdrive in its handhelds was merely over-enthusiastic marketing bluster rather than real evidence of a new LifeDrive coming out this fall. It would simply make no sense for Palm to release the 4GB LifeDrive now, only to undercut that product 3 to 6 months later with a higher capacity version. But, as always, I could be wrong.

The second “rumor” popped up today (I saw it first on Engadget - http://www.engadget.com/entry/1234000700048062/ ) about a new Tungsten shown in photos called a “TungstenXX.” This nomenclature, or something like it – TungstenX – was used briefly on pre-production photos of the LifeDrive. I believe that the XX or X designation is merely a placeholder for the eventually final name, most likely something more akin to TungstenT7 (see my “predictions” below). The most significant thing about this rumor is that the photos indicate that this new Tungsten will indeed be getting the built-in WiFi so many Palm-pundits wanted to see in the T5.

On to my analysis…. Looking at the future of palmOne (or Palm), we should first take our hints from the company’s current marketing. If the current palmOne in-store foldout brochure touting their Spring 2005 line-up is any indication, 2 existing models – the TungstenC and Zire 21 – are headed into the sunset. Those 2 models, although still listed on the palmOne web site and available at some retailers, are not mentioned in the Spring 2005 retail brochure at all. And their ends are not unexpected.

With the drop in price on the color-equipped Zire 31, the black-and-white Zire 21 is destined to disappear. As for the TungstenC, it is already long-in-the-tooth as PDA models go, introduced over two years ago now. The feature that set it apart from palmOne’s other offerings, its Wifi 802.11b wireless capability, is no longer exclusive to it. The new LifeDrive offers both WiFi and Bluetooth, and palmOne is offering a free WiFi SD card with its TungstenT5 unit now.

The other palmOne model often mentioned as due for an update, the camera-equipped Zire 72, was widely rumored to have gotten a replacement (often referred to in the rumor mills as the “Zire 73”) as early as this Spring. Instead we saw the introduction of the higher-end LifeDrive Mobile Manager. More media-centric than palmOne’s other high-end handhelds, the LifeDrive nevertheless does not come with a camera built-in.

So, unless Palm (as we will call it from now on) is planning on phasing out the Zire consumer-oriented line (as some have speculated), I expect that a replacement for the Zire 72 is coming this fall. However, I would not be surprised to see this unit arrive as a part of the new “Mobile Manager” category Palm “created” with the LifeDrive and going by a name other than Zire. One sighting on a European palmOne store showed a listing of something called a “NicePalm” in the Mobile Manager category with the LifeDrive. While I believe this to have been a website development fluke and not a reliable harbinger of the name Palm will actually use (in part because “NicePalm” simply sounds too… cutesy), it does signal that we will likely see new entries in this category sooner rather than later. And I would expect the next entry to be a lower-cost unit than the $500 LifeDrive. So, whatever they choose to designate it, Zire 73, NicePalm, or LifeDrive Lite, I expect to see a media-centric entry level (i.e., under $350) Palm this fall. I would expect this unit to take the major feature of the Zire 72, a 1.2 Megapixel camera, and pair it with the new “Athena” multi-connector used on the T5, Treo 650, E2 and LifeDrive, the NVFS memory structure of the T5, Treo 650, E2 and LifeDrive (with say maybe 128-512MB FlashRAM), the higher-resolution 480x320 screen of the T5 and LifeDrive, and the LifeDrive Manager, Media, and Camera Companion software. Essentially this unit would extend the capabilities of the LifeDrive, minus the hard drive, down to a unit with a camera built-in. I would see this unit coming in at between $299 and $349 MSRP.

Then, with such a new unit stealing a bunch of thunder from the T5 and its 256MB Flash Drive capability, especially if this new mini LifeDrive comes with 512MB Flash RAM or more, expect the T5 itself to get a replacement. The most recent rumor of a TungstenXX (see above) with virtually the same body as the T5 seems to substantiate this. Going out on a limb (that others have already explored), I predict this new Palm will be called the TungstenT7. This follows the trend Palm has followed of steering away from the numbers 4 and 6 in model designations.

It is no secret that the T5 did not meet with much critical success, nor apparently with much sales success. A successful replacement for it would do much for rehabilitating the high-end Tungsten line. What this new Tungsten will look like in terms of capabilities, is anyone’s guess (the recent pictures seem to indicate that the unit will physically resemble the T5 which in turn resembled the sales-leading TungstenE). So I’ll make my guess as to its capabilities.

First off, we have to assume for now that Palm is not ready to put Palm OS 6 Cobalt into a handheld. They seem to be waiting for what palmSource will do on the Linux front and both companies have always touted Cobalt as targeted at smartphone applications. If they put Palm OS 6 Cobalt into a Tungsten it would likely be to accomplish two things: (1) to enable VGA screen support, and (2) to steal some thunder from Microsoft’s much ballyhooed Windows Mobile 5 launch.

As such, expect a TungstenT7 to offer the same 420x320 screen as the T5, perhaps bump up the processor to a 500+ MHz Xscale (although notes on the TungstenXX appearing in photos say that it has a 312MHz processor… odd to step DOWN rather than up), upgrade to 512MB or more of NVFS Flash RAM (and if the cries of the NVFS naysayers are heeded, add 64MB of “real” SDRAM for program memory), and then add WiFi to the T5’s Bluetooth wireless capabilities. This would make such a model a fitting successor to both the TungstenT5 and TungstenC. The only major feature of the C missing would be the built-in keyboard. But I believe this feature is being left to the Treo smartphone line from now on.

So there you have it. I expect two new Palm units to be introduced in the Fall replacing the Zire 72, the TungstenT5 and TungstenC. And just to finish up my spate of predictions, I see a permanent price reduction on the T5 down to $349 coming in July when the current $50 rebate ends. Palm will want to clear those models out going into the fall. I also hope for more than expect a price reduction on the TungstenE2 to $199 and on the Zire 31 to $109 by fall. Most have praised the improvements made to the E2 over its sales-leading predecessor TungstenE, but I have always felt the price jump from $199 to $249 to be a bit much for what is supposed to be an entry-level business handheld. At $199, I believe the E2 will be better positioned to put up sales numbers similar to the runaway successful E and position Palm to take a firm grasp on the under-$300 PDA market, such as it is. Further dropping the price on the Zire 31 from $129 to $109, or even $99, would simply enable Palm to maintain the price point served by the exiting Zire 21.

That’s all I have for now. I could be way off, as any speculation on this industry can be. No matter. In the meantime, I will go on enjoying the wonders of a handheld computer with 4 Gigabytes of storage.